Software repriced first — tech deal value fell 70 percent.
The "SaaSpocalypse" is real. And tech is just first in line.
Per Bain's midyear data, global buyout deal value in technology fell 70 percent in Q1 2026 to $20 billion. Software valuations dropped 8 percent in that quarter alone, compared with 0.3 percent for all other sectors.
Software got fat on cheap leverage and the assumption that growth would continue. The market repriced that assumption when AI changed the competitive dynamics. Software is the first sector to learn that leverage without operational excellence is a liability, not an asset.
Tech is just first in line. This is what happens when an entire sector learns the old thesis doesn't work anymore. Other sectors will follow as the environment tightens. The difference between survival and decline is increasingly a function of operating discipline, not sector exposure.